WATERBURY,
VT. -- Ricardo Puente is a worried man. Coffee drinkers may soon have reason to
join him.
Puente,
president of Apecafe in El Salvador, a cooperative of more than 400 coffee
farmers, has been watching closely as "la roya," a fungus, has devastated
coffee plantations across Central America this year.
"We
think outbreaks of violence and famine can occur in some cooperatives as a
result of this situation," Puente said in a recent interview from San
Salvador, where Apecafe is headquartered.
The
price of coffee has yet to go up in the United States as a result of the
fungus, also known as coffee rust disease. But Lindsey Bolger, senior director
of coffee for Green Mountain Coffee Roasters here, said that could change next
year.
"The
consumer should be worried about the long-term implications of rust because it
could severely limit the depth and breadth of coffee they love," Bolger
said. "I can tell you as we have more and more episodes like this, your
choices as a consumer could be compromised, and if we have enough of these
episodes, the price will be impacted, along with quality."
Green
Mountain Coffee is one of the biggest buyers of coffee in the world, purchasing
some 207 million pounds in 2012. Bolger said the coffee market hasn't responded
to Central American production dropping by 20% this year because Brazil, the
biggest coffee grower in the world, is expected to bring in a good crop.
"I
think the situation will be very different next year, because despite a bumper
crop from Brazil, if coffee rust continues to be an issue, and plants in
Central America are weakened, production will be down even more than 20%,"
Bolger said.
Puente
says la roya has affected more than 74% of coffee plantations in El Salvador in
the past year. He says the country will lose 1 million of the 1.7 million
quintales of coffee beans it normally produces. One quintal is equal to about
100 pounds.
"The
reality is we have been hit by something very powerful," Puente said.
"The other issue is migration. People are going to want to move to the
United States and other countries where they can find food."
La
roya is hitting countries that produce arabica beans that real coffee drinkers
insist upon, Bolger says. Together with Colombia, Central American countries
produce about half the arabica beans in the world.
The
International Coffee Organization (ICO), based in London, issued a report on la
roya in May, saying more than 50% of the total coffee-growing areas in Central
America have been affected. El Salvador, where Puente runs his cooperative, has
the highest incidence rate of 74%, followed by Guatemala, at 70%, Costa Rica,
at 64%, Nicaragua, at 37% and Honduras, at 25%.
The
ICO estimates total damage this year of 2.7 million bags of coffee, a loss of
about $500 million.
But
the most troubling conclusion of the ICO report is the expectation that the
impact of la roya will be "even more severe" next year.
Rick
Peyser, director of social advocacy at Green Mountain Coffee, said an
agronomist he spoke to in Guatemala in February backed up the conclusion of the
ICO report.
"He
said he felt in that area farmers would lose 60% to 80% of the crop next
year," Peyser said. "This year, la roya came in toward the end of the
harvest. Most of the harvest came in. But next year, these plants will be
struggling."
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D'Ambrosio
also reports for The Burlington (Vt.) Free Press