Because
coffee is a highly climate-dependent crop, the increase of a few degrees of
average temperature in growing regions can put at risk the future of Arabica
coffee and the livelihood of millions of people who grow and produce it.
"The
extinction of arabica coffee is a startling and worrying prospect," said
Aaron Davis, head of coffee research at the Royal Botanic Gardens, who led the
study.
In a
telephone interview, he said the findings made it even more important for
organizations such as the World Coffee Research collaboration to continue work
to improve the genetic strength of cultivated arabica by preserving wild types.
Researchers
used computer modeling to analyze the influence of rising temperatures on the
geographical distribution of wild arabica coffee.
The
results, published in a the Public Library of Science journal PLOS ONE, showed
a "profoundly negative influence" on the number and extent of wild
arabica populations, the researchers said.
The
researchers conducted two types of analysis. In the locality analysis, they
found that the best outcome was for a 65 percent fall in the number of
pre-existing bioclimatic ally suitable localities and the worst was for a 99.7
percent drop by 2080.
In the
area analysis, the best outcome was a 38 percent reduction in suitable growing
regions and the worst case was a 90 percent reduction by 2080.
Davis
said the predictions were conservative, since the modeling did not factor in
large-scale deforestation now taking place in Ethiopia and South Sudan, another
Arabica coffee region.
"The
models assume intact natural vegetation, whereas the highland forests of
Ethiopia and South Sudan are highly fragmented due to deforestation," the
researchers wrote.
"Other
factors, such as pests and diseases, changes in flowering times, and perhaps a
reduction in the number of birds (which disperse the coffee seeds), are not
included, and these are likely to have a compounding negative influence."
Cultivated
arabica coffee accounts for slightly more than 60 percent of global coffee
production, with about 4.86 million tones produced this year and valued at
around $16 billion in wholesale trade.
Exports
of coffee also are crucial to the economies of countries including Brazil, Sudan and Ethiopia, where arabica
coffee is thought to have originated.
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(Additional reporting by Nigel Hunt; editing
by Jane Baird and William Hardy)