By
Leslie Josephs
November
4, 2012
NEW YORK—Arabica-coffee prices are at nearly their lowest point
since June, and market conditions point to still lower prices ahead.
Arabica coffee for delivery in December ended at $1.5345 a pound
on ICE Futures U.S. on Thursday, the lowest settlement since June 20. Prices
recovered slightly on Friday, rising 1.3 cents, or 0.8%, to $1.5470 a pound,
but were still down 1.9% for the week.
Arabica-coffee futures have been well below 2011's levels, when
prices peaked above $3 a pound.
To try to counter the drop, Brazilian coffee growers have been
storing rather than selling their arabica beans.
But Colombia and Central American growers kicked off their
harvests last month, and as the influx of supply pushes prices lower, Brazilian
growers may try to sell before the prices fall too far.
"There's a lot of coffee in the hands of Brazilian
producers," said Marcio Bernardo, an analyst at brokerage Newedge.
Growers in Brazil, the source of about one-third of the world's
coffee, are expected to reap a record 50.48 million 60-kilogram bags this year,
according to a government forecast. Colombia is expected to produce about eight
million bags in 2012, according to the National Federation of Coffee Growers
for Colombia, and at least 10 million bags in 2013.
The harvest in Brazil is complete, but Colombia and Central
America started picking their beans last month. As those beans are harvested,
growers there are expected to sell because they aren't as well-financed as
their counterparts in Brazil.
"We can't wait," said Ricardo Villanueva, president of
the Guatemalan Coffee Association. Guatemala is Central America's
second-largest grower after Honduras.
Central America and Colombia "don't have a lot of options in
keeping those beans off the market as the Brazilians," said Keith Flury, a
senior commodities analyst at Rabobank.
Some are predicting a cascade effect once Central American and
Colombian producers start selling.
"I think this will put some pressure on [Brazilian] growers
and encourage the wiser ones among them to let go of some coffee beans,"
said Sterling Smith, a commodities specialist at Citibank. "As the harvest
picks up, more coffee will become available and that tends to create pressure
on prices."
Prices could slip as low as $1.40 a pound, Mr. Smith said. Arabica-coffee
prices last traded around that level in June 2010.
Some traders are preparing for the release of growers' beans on
the market by selling now, Mr. Smith said.
Arabica-coffee futures are down 11% since Oct. 1.
Also weighing on prices is a buildup of beans certified by ICE,
the main futures market for arabica coffee. At the end of October, arabica
coffee in ICE-licensed warehouses reached 2.4 million bags, the highest
month-end level since April 2010.
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