Coffee Perks Up, With Traders Looking Ahead
By Alexandra Wexler
September
10, 2012
NEW YORK—Arabica coffee futures rallied to a five-week high
Monday as investors closed out bets that prices would fall and market participants begin to look ahead to
next season's crop.
Brazil, the source of one-third of the
world's coffee, is nearing the end of the harvest of what is expected to be a
record crop of arabica. The estimated production of 50.48 million 60-kilogram
(132-pound) bags of coffee beans had encouraged investors to bet that prices
would fall.
For the week ended Sept. 4, the managed money
net-short position was 18,591 contracts, the largest net-short position since
May 2007, Commerzbank said in a note.
But that report, released Friday after the
market closed, spooked investors into closing some of those positions, sparking
Monday's rally.
Arabica coffee for September delivery on the
ICE Futures U.S. exchange surged 6.6% Monday to settle at $1.7340 a pound, its
highest since early August. The more actively traded contract for December
delivery settled 6.5% higher at $1.7365 a pound.
With Brazil's harvest winding down, investors
also are looking ahead to the next crop, which will be smaller than the current
one. Brazil has a biannual crop cycle with on- and off-cycle harvests. Next
season's crop will be off-cycle and will likely lead to a tighter global supply
situation, traders said.
"We are now getting ready to price in a
substantial deficit for the following [harvest]," said Shawn Hackett,
president of brokerage and consultancy Hackett Financial Advisors.
Traders are also keeping an eye on the
development of El Niño, a weather phenomenon that affects tropical rainfall
patterns and weather around the world. Meteorologists say El Niño is likely to
form in September and typically causes drier-than-usual weather in Brazil.
Mr. Hackett said the market will price in a
below-average crop in advance of the actual shortage.
Spencer Patton, founder of Steel Vine
Investments, a brokerage in Nashville, sees arabica coffee trading around $1.75
a pound in the near term.
However, "I don't think anyone should be
expecting $2 coffee prices," Mr. Patton added. Arabica futures last traded
over $2 a pound in late February.
Arabica beans, the world's most consumed
variety of coffee, are valued for their mild flavor and typically used in
gourmet blends.
----Related news
Coffee skyrockets as prediction of smaller harvest in Colombia offsets Brazil’s robust harvest
By Sandy Shore
Associated
Press via Washington Post
September 10,
2012
The
price of coffee is skyrocketing on speculation that Colombia’s harvest will be
smaller than expected for the fourth straight year.
Coffee
for December delivery jumped 10.6 cents, or 6.5 percent, to finish at $1.7365
per pound. That’s the highest level since early August.
Although
Brazil’s coffee crop appears headed toward a robust harvest, Colombia’s crop
was hampered by heavy rainfall that caused delays earlier in the season.
Colombia could produce a smaller-than-expected crop for the fourth consecutive
year, Barclays Capital analysts said in a report on Friday.
Other
commodity prices shrugged off fresh signs of slowing economic growth in China,
which is a huge importer of raw materials such as copper, oil and soybeans.
China’s
imports shrank unexpectedly in August, which was an indication that its
economic slump is worsening. And the Chinese president warned growth could slow
further, prompting expectations of possible new stimulus spending. That could
help economic growth, which would benefit metals and other raw materials.
Traders
also are waiting to see if the Federal Reserve will approve more measures to
aid the U.S. economy at its meeting this week. The government reported weak
growth in jobs in August which came on top of weakness in manufacturing.
Gold
for December delivery fell $8.70 to end at $1,731.80 per ounce, December silver
dropped 5.7 cents to $33.633 per ounce. December copper rose 4.35 cents to
$3.6885 per pound, October platinum gained $7.50 to $1,603.80 per ounce and
December palladium increased $18, or 2.7 percent, to $672.75 per ounce.
Benchmark
oil gained 12 cents to finish at $96.54 per barrel, heating oil increased 1.79
cents to $3.1668 per gallon, gasoline rose 0.44 cent to $3.024 per gallon.
Natural gas jumped 13 cents, or 4.8 percent, to $2.812 per 1,000 cubic feet.
In
agricultural contracts, December wheat fell 15.25 cents to end at $8.8975 per
bushel, December corn dropped 16.25 cents to $7.8325 per bushel and November
soybeans decreased 17.75 cents to $17.1875 per bushel.
---
Related
news
Colombia Coffee Production Expected
to Climb 8.8% This Year
By
Heather Walsh
September
10, 2012
Colombia, the second-largest
supplier of Arabica coffee beans, said production will rise at least 8.8
percent this year as drier weather aids the crop.
The
nation will harvest 8.5 million bags or more of the beans, compared with 7.8
million bags last year, Colombia’s National Federation of Coffee Growers said today. Agriculture Minister Juan
Camilo Restrepo forecast output of about 9 million bags yesterday on
broadcaster Caracol Radio.
Colombia
is anticipating a recovery in production after an end to above-average rainfall
that drove the 2011 harvest to a 35-year low. This year’s harvest will fall
short of 11.5 million bags reached in 2008, before crop disease and wet weather
reduced output. The annual harvest may surpass 12 million bags in coming years,
Restrepo said.
He
forecast output this year of as much as 9.5 million bags on Sept. 2. In August,
coffee production rose 21 percent to 565,000 bags from 466,000 bags a year
earlier. Exports jumped 56 percent to 599,000 bags from 384,000 bags, according
to the Bogota-based federation.
Each
bag of coffee weighs 60 kilograms (132 pounds). Brazil is the largest supplier
of Arabica coffee, favored by specialty brewers such as Starbucks Corp. (SBUX).