ICO: Coffee supply, demand at equilibrium in 2011/12

July 2012 Monthly Coffee Report

Coffee prices rebounded in July 2012, with the ICO composite indicator increasing by 9.5% compared to June, following nine consecutive months of price falls. The strongest growth was seen in Arabicas, fuelled by concerns over the Brazilian crop after unseasonably heavy rains at the beginning of the month. Nevertheless, Arabica prices remain at relatively low levels compared to the last 12 months. Robustas saw more modest growth, increasing by 1.3% to reach their highest level since August 2011.

In terms of market fundamentals, world production in 2011/12 is estimated at 131.4 million bags,

falling slightly from 134.4 million bags in 2010/11. World consumption, on the other hand, is estimated to have increased to 137.9 million bags in calendar year 2011. The supply/demand balance therefore remains relatively tight.

World exports in June 2012 reached 9.6 million bags, 5.1% higher than the same month in 2011, bringing the total for the first three quarters of the coffee year (October to June) to 81.2 million bags. This represents a slight decrease of 0.3% on the previous year. Total exports from October to June over the last ten years have increased at an average annual rate of 2%, while consumption has increased at a rate of 2.4%.

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Read the full report at http://www.ico.org/documents/cmr-0712-e.pdf

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